What does beyond 3 degrees global warming mean for Australia?
02 Oct 2007
WWF releases climate change report on eve of US Major Emitters conference
Heat-related deaths in Australia will increase three-fold, the frequency of bushfires is likely to more than double and Australia's most treasured natural icons will almost certainly be lost under the Australian Government's current negotiating position on climate change according to a review of scientific forecasts by WWF-Australia.
The report, Dangerous Aspirations: Beyond 3 degrees Warming in Australia, has been written by Dr Barrie Pittock, former head of the CSIRO's Climate Impacts Group, and considers in detail the likely effects on Australia if average global warming is allowed to exceed 3 degrees Celcius.
WWF commissioned the analysis following the Government's release of an Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) report during APEC that proposed an "enhanced technology" scenario which would not reduce global emissions, but instead result in global greenhouse gas emissions rising approximately 60 per cent above 1990 levels by 2050.
A recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report indicates that such an increase in emissions would result in a rise in long term average global temperature of between 3.2oC and 4.9oC above pre-industrial levels.
WWF's Beyond 3oC report reveals that such a rise in average global temperatures would result in three times the present rate of deaths for over 65's per 100,000 from heat-related diseases, mass displacement of people from low-lying coastal areas, loss of forest productivity by up to 50 per cent in Northern Australia due to increasingly intense bushfires, and severe detrimental effects on our farmers as rainfall patterns change and tropical pests move further south.
It will also mean the degradation of tourist attractions and ecosystems within our natural icons such as the Kakadu Wetlands, Australia's Wet Tropics, the Great Barrier Reef and the Australian alps. This in turn will result in mass extinctions of mammals, birds, insects and flora unprecedented in recent history.
"On an even more serious note, such a rise in temperature would almost certainly trigger an unstoppable climate 'tipping point' - which may occur with a global warming of 2-3o C. If warming reaches 3-4o C then the thresholds for irreversible change will almost certainly be crossed," said Dr Pittock.
Greg Bourne, CEO, WWF-Australia commented: "The Australian Government continues to tinker while 'Rome burns'. Not deciding to win on climate change is deciding to fail. Climate change is not a game of short term politics - it threatens the livelihood of our nation.
"Our country desperately needs to show leadership by stopping emissions rising by 2010 and implementing cuts of 20-30 per cent by 2020, and 60 per cent by 2050.
"We can't afford to pretend anymore. This report proves that it is contrary to the national interest for the Australian Government to negotiate any deal which is not intended to cut global emissions in half.
"The idea that the Australia Government will attend the Conference of Major Emitters in New York at the end of this week with a report that indicates a 60 per cent increase in emissions should alarm every Australian citizen. No sector of the economy will be left unscathed if we accept runaway climate change."
The Beyond 3oC report also outlines that an irreversible climate 'tipping point' may already be occurring in the Arctic, where ice-cover is at record lows and is far worse than any current climate models have been able to predict. The depletion of what is effectively a huge mirror that reflects sun light and heat – resulting in the warming of the world's oceans - is an example of a 'tipping point' that will amplify global warming and possibly rising sea levels.
More information
Rachael Hoy, WWF Press Office
Mobile: 0407 504 594
Phone: 02 8202 1202
Email: rhoy@wwf.org.au
